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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to SF 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at SF 21 for 4 yards (84-M.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP