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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 16:25 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SF
45.6%
CIN
54.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.205 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SF

Trenton Cannon RB Out Concussion
Dre Greenlaw LB Out Groin
Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Elijah Mitchell RB Out Concussion
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Ankle
Dontae Johnson CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Groin

CIN

Chris Evans RB Out Ankle
Logan Wilson LB Out Shoulder
Tyler Shelvin DT Doubtful Illness
Markus Bailey LB Doubtful Neck
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Illness
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Foot
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 26
–
CIN 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:41 FG SF (6:41) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – CIN 0
  • Q1 00:36 FG CIN (:36) 2-E.McPherson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SF 3 – CIN 3
  • Q2 12:12 TD SF (12:12) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – CIN 3
  • Q2 01:46 FG CIN (1:46) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SF 10 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:25 TD SF (:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – CIN 6
  • Q3 07:46 FG SF (7:46) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 20 – CIN 6
  • Q4 09:29 TD CIN (9:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – CIN 12
  • Q4 01:25 TD CIN (1:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – CIN 19
  • Q5 06:19 FG CIN (6:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SF 20 – CIN 23
  • Q5 02:00 TD SF (2:00) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at CIN 1 for 11 yards (30-J.Bates III). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 36%

    (12:04) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:20) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-13-R.Cracraft at CIN 23. CIN-23-D.Phillips was injured during the play.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (6:41) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (:36) 2-E.McPherson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%

    (9:36) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to SF 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at SF 21 for 4 yards (84-M.Wilcox).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:59) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 37 for 8 yards (89-C.Woerner).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (1:46) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-81-T.Sherfield at CIN 31.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:07) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (7:46) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%

    (1:18) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (9:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-T.Boyd to CIN 31 for 1 yard (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:49) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SF 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 15 for no gain (89-D.Sample).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-T.Boyd.