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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 37 for 8 yards (89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.43 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP