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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.21 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP