Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

(1:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-81-T.Sherfield at CIN 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.20 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model