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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +4.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model