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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP