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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model