4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-T.Boyd to CIN 31 for 1 yard (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.31 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model