Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 59

Detroit Lions 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(11:23) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-47-S.Daly. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 25 for 6 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model