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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -13.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ARI
71.2%
DET
28.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Jared Goff (DET) -0.103 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.224 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 26
–
DET 20
Projected margin: ARI by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ARI

Robert Alford CB Out Pectoral
DeAndre Hopkins WR Out Knee
James Conner RB Questionable Ankle
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Hamstring
Leki Fotu DT Questionable Shoulder
Zach Kerr DT Questionable Ribs
Corey Peters DT Questionable Knee
Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Thumb
Justin Pugh G Questionable Calf

DET

Julian Okwara LB Out Ankle
D'Andre Swift RB Out Shoulder
Tracy Walker S Questionable Illness
Will Holden T Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Back
Alex Anzalone LB Questionable Ankle
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Knee
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Shoulder
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 12
–
DET 30

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:14 FG DET (6:14) 6-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. ARI 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:24 TD DET (:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-Z.Allen]. ARI-94-Z.Allen was injured during the play. ARI 0 – DET 16
  • Q3 11:26 FG ARI (11:26) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – DET 17
  • Q3 08:15 TD DET (8:15) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 45-J.Cabinda for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – DET 23
  • Q3 03:58 FG ARI (3:58) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 6 – DET 24
  • Q4 13:21 FG DET (13:21) 6-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. ARI 6 – DET 27
  • Q4 04:46 TD ARI (4:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – DET 27
  • Q4 02:51 FG DET (2:51) 6-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. ARI 12 – DET 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (6:14) 6-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 56%

    (3:53) 14-A.Lee punts 34 yards to DET 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-33-A.Hamilton.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:28) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DET 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 38 for 10 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:23) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-47-S.Daly. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 25 for 6 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:52) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DET 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (84-D.Harris).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:25) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-S.Daly. 4-R.Moore to ARI 39 for 12 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (2:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 85-A.Wesley (41-A.Parker).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 83%

    (:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 22 for 6 yards (9-I.Simmons).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 97%

    (11:26) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (3:58) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (13:21) 6-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 80%

    (11:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 85-A.Wesley.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

    (7:56) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (2:51) 6-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 97%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles left end ran ob at DET 6 for 3 yards (38-C.Moore).