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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 29

Detroit Lions 24 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 6-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model