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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(11:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 85-A.Wesley.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model