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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 51

Detroit Lions 27 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model