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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 27

Detroit Lions 27 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 6-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model