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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 14-A.Lee punts 34 yards to DET 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-33-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model