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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DET 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 38 for 10 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model