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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 4

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 7-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP