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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ATL
29.3%
SF
70.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.198 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
SF 28
Projected margin: SF by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Erik Harris S Out Chest
Dante Fowler LB Questionable Calf

SF

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Groin
Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Elijah Mitchell RB Out Concussion
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Doubtful Elbow
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Concussion
D.J. Jones DT Questionable Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Glute

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 13
–
SF 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:17 FG ATL (7:17) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 01:25 FG SF (1:25) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. ATL 3 – SF 3
  • Q2 09:19 TD SF (9:19) 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – SF 9
  • Q2 04:06 TD ATL (4:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-R.Gage for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-20-A.Thomas, Defensive Holding, declined. ATL 9 – SF 10
  • Q2 00:39 TD SF (:39) 19-D.Samuel left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – SF 16
  • Q3 11:15 TD SF (11:15) 22-J.Wilson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – SF 23
  • Q3 06:32 FG ATL (6:32) 7-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 13 – SF 24
  • Q3 01:20 TD SF (1:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – SF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (12:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 8-K.Pitts [91-A.Armstead].

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (11:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to SF 49, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 80%

    (7:17) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (1:25) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (13:41) 19-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at SF 23 for 10 yards (32-J.Hawkins).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (6:32) 7-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:54) 19-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to SF 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 15 for -2 yards (27-R.Grant).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to ATL 34, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (10:42) 84-C.Patterson left end to SF 8 for no gain (1-J.Ward).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:48) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to ATL 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 35-A.Williams to SF 47 for 23 yards (89-C.Woerner).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Blake.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:29) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.