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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 8
Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31
What Actually Happened
(10:42) 84-C.Patterson left end to SF 8 for no gain (1-J.Ward).
The Three Options
GO
+3.35 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
- 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK
+1.69 EP
- 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
