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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(:29) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.35 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -0.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model