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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP