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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth +0.87 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +1.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model