Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(12:32) 10-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 43 for 14 yards (50-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model