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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
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BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 14.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CAR
22.4%
BUF
77.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.145 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.189 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CAR

A.J. Bouye CB Out Foot
John Miller G Questionable Ankle
Michael Jordan G Questionable Hamstring
D.J. Moore WR Questionable Hamstring

BUF

Emmanuel Sanders WR Doubtful Knee
A.J. Epenesa DE Questionable Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Star Lotulelei DT Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 14
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:20 TD BUF (14:20) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 09:47 TD BUF (9:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 01:54 TD CAR (1:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:05 FG BUF (:05) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. CAR 8 – BUF 17
  • Q3 05:59 TD BUF (5:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 8 – BUF 23
  • Q4 11:07 TD CAR (11:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 20-A.Abdullah for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – BUF 24
  • Q4 02:12 TD BUF (2:12) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-G.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 40 for 17 yards (4-J.Carter).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:10) 3-M.Haack punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (8:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:02) 3-M.Haack punts 43 yards to CAR 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 27%

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Anderson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:32) 10-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 43 for 14 yards (50-J.Stanford).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 23%

    (5:21) 10-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 5-M.Stevenson.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (:05) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%

    (12:29) 3-M.Haack punts 28 yards to CAR 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:41) 10-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 55%

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 16-B.Zylstra to BUF 30 for 9 yards (39-L.Wallace).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 2-Dj.Moore (55-J.Hughes). Pass batted at line.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:29) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to BUF 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:00) 3-M.Haack punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 31 for 16 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 37%

    (6:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 46 for -8 yards (93-E.Obada).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%

    (2:12) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-G.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.