Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(13:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 40 for 17 yards (4-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model