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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 14 – Carolina Panthers 8

What Actually Happened

(:05) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model