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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 17 – Carolina Panthers 8

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 3-M.Haack punts 28 yards to CAR 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model