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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 8 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 16-B.Zylstra to BUF 30 for 9 yards (39-L.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model