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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 10

Carolina Panthers 8 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 2-Dj.Moore (55-J.Hughes). Pass batted at line.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model