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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 24 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 3-M.Haack punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 31 for 16 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model