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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 14
Buffalo Bills 24 – Carolina Panthers 14
What Actually Happened
(2:12) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-G.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.70 EP
What Happened
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.61 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
KICK
+1.73 EP
Model's Pick
- 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
