4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 3-M.Haack punts 43 yards to CAR 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.89 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model