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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.30 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model