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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO +4.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model