Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- KC defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.154 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.145 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
KC
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:38 TD KC (7:38) 45-M.Burton up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LAC 0
- Q2 14:51 FG KC (14:51) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – LAC 0
- Q2 09:18 TD LAC (9:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – LAC 6
- Q2 03:21 TD LAC (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-J.Guyton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – LAC 13
- Q3 12:16 FG KC (12:16) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 13 – LAC 14
- Q4 09:34 TD LAC (9:34) 30-A.Ekeler left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – LAC 20
- Q4 07:49 TD KC (7:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – LAC 21
- Q4 02:24 TD LAC (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – LAC 27
- Q4 01:22 TD KC (1:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-K.White]. KC 27 – LAC 28
- Q5 08:54 TD KC (8:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – LAC 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(13:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 89-D.Parham. LAC-89-D.Parham was injured during the play. He is Out.
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Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(14:51) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:19) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to KC 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 75%
(6:18) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to KC 31 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%
(:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (49-D.Sorensen).
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Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%
(12:16) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 83%
(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Cook (54-N.Bolton).
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 17-M.Hardman.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%
(12:24) (Shotgun) 27-J.Kelley right end to KC 4 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:25) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to KC 20, Center-54-M.Overton. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 28 for 8 yards (31-N.Niemann; 94-C.Rumph).