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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 89-D.Parham. LAC-89-D.Parham was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model