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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Cook (54-N.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model