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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 2
Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 14
What Actually Happened
(1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 17-M.Hardman.
The Three Options
GO
+4.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.53 EP
KICK
+2.02 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT
+0.13 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
