Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

(:25) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to KC 20, Center-54-M.Overton. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 28 for 8 yards (31-N.Niemann; 94-C.Rumph).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.02 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -1.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model