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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.67 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP