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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Monday 2021-12-20 · 17:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

LV
42.6%
CLE
57.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Nick Mullens (CLE): +0.108 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Nick Mullens in place of Baker Mayfield)
  • LV offense: +0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
CLE 24
Projected margin: CLE by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LV

Trayvon Mullen CB Out Toe
Denzel Perryman LB Out Ankle
Darren Waller TE Out Knee
Carl Nassib DE Questionable Knee

CLE

Kareem Hunt RB Out Ankle
Greg Newsome CB Out Concussion
Anthony Schwartz WR Out Concussion
Harrison Bryant TE Questionable Ankle
Malik Jackson DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 16
–
CLE 14

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:44 TD LV (3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-B.Edwards for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:59 FG LV (:59) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – CLE 0
  • Q3 04:37 TD CLE (4:37) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – CLE 6
  • Q4 14:51 FG LV (14:51) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – CLE 7
  • Q4 03:54 TD CLE (3:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Mullens pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-29-C.Hayward, Defensive Holding, declined. LV 13 – CLE 13
  • Q4 00:03 FG LV (:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – CLE 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 42 for 29 yards (44-S.Takitaki; 86-M.Forristall).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LV 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:59) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to CLE 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-33-R.Teamer.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 39.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:59) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:18) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CLE 31, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to LV 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:19) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-D.Leavitt. 32-D.Leavitt right guard to LV 36 for 2 yards (36-M.Stewart).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (14:51) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:03) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 31.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:14) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Mullens pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-29-C.Hayward, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 29 for 2 yards (52-E.Lee).