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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP