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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-D.Leavitt. 32-D.Leavitt right guard to LV 36 for 2 yards (36-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model