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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model