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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model