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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Mullens pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-29-C.Hayward, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model