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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model