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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 20:20 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NO
22.8%
TB
77.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.188 vs Taysom Hill (NO) -0.273 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 18
–
TB 27
Projected margin: TB by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Garrett Griffin TE Out Knee
Ryan Ramczyk T Out Knee
Kaden Elliss LB Questionable Hamstring
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR Questionable Hamstring

TB

Jamel Dean CB Out Illness
Richard Sherman CB Doubtful Achilles
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Foot
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Calf
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 9
–
TB 0

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 36 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:49 FG NO (5:49) 19-B.Maher 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG NO (15:00) 19-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 6 – TB 0
  • Q4 07:32 FG NO (7:32) 19-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 9 – TB 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 21 for 6 yards (50-A.Dowell).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (5:49) 19-B.Maher 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to NO 9, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston pushed ob at NO 43 for 34 yards (97-Z.Triner).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 19-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:40) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 43 for 11 yards (50-A.Dowell).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (6:25) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 39%

    (3:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to TB 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 18 for 3 yards (50-A.Dowell).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (:48) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-30-D.Delaney.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston to NO 32 for 4 yards (97-Z.Triner).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:51) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to TB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 22 for 2 yards (50-A.Dowell; 20-P.Werner).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NO 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston to NO 36 for 8 yards (97-Z.Triner, 51-K.Minter). PENALTY on NO-53-Z.Baun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 39 for 9 yards (50-A.Dowell).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 68%

    (5:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:37) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 19 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (14:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to TB 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 32 for no gain (88-T.Montgomery).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:09) 8-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to NO 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (7:32) 19-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:42) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 46, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 30%

    (5:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to TB 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.