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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model